According to DefiOasis, Polymarket now counts more than 1.7 million trading addresses. Yet only about 30% of them have realized a profit. In simple terms, roughly seven out of ten addresses that traded on Polymarket ended up losing money.
The numbers paint a sharp picture of how uneven outcomes can be in onchain markets, even when participation is wide and transparent.
A Small Group Takes Most of the Gains
The data highlights a strong concentration of profits at the top. Earning more than $1,000 already puts an address in the top 4.9% of all Polymarket traders. Go one step higher and the gap widens fast. Fewer than 0.04 percent of addresses captured more than 70% of all realized profits on the platform. That means a tiny group of highly successful traders walked away with the bulk of the gains.
Most profitable addresses earned modest amounts. The largest group of winners made between $0 and $1,000, suggesting that consistent small wins are more common than breakout successes. On the other side, about 1.1 million addresses have realized losses in the same $0 to $1,000 range. These users likely placed a handful of trades, paid fees, and missed timing or outcomes by small margins. It mirrors what traditional markets have shown for decades: many participants trade, but only a few outperform in a meaningful way.
在超过 170 万个 Polymarket 全体交易地址中，获得已实现盈利的地址占比接近 30%；反过来说，~70% 的交易地址已实现亏损
一个更为扎心的现实是，不到 0.04% 的地址获得了超过 70% 的总已实现盈利，这些顶级地址累计已实现盈利高达 37 亿美元
绝大多数能够实现盈利的交易地址的盈利区间是 0 – 1,000… pic.twitter.com/jAj3SXsxVO
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) December 29, 2025
A real world comparison helps. Retail stock traders during the 2020 and 2021 boom also saw uneven results. Studies later showed that a small fraction of active traders captured most profits, while many others lost small but steady amounts over time. Polymarket appears to follow a similar path, just onchain.
More About Polymarket
An anonymous Polymarket trader has turned a modest $1,000 stake into roughly $2 million by exploiting microstructure arbitrage, a strategy that profits from small price gaps created by order flow and timing. Rather than making big directional bets, the trader executed more than 13,000 high frequency trades, repeatedly buying and selling contracts to capture tiny inefficiencies that most users overlook.
🔥 INTERESTING: Anonymous Polymarket trader flips $1K to $2M via microstructure arbitrage, executing 13K+ high-frequency trades. pic.twitter.com/wxiEvuRl4R
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) December 26, 2025
The case highlights how Polymarket is evolving beyond simple prediction bets into a more complex trading venue, where speed, discipline, and deep understanding of market mechanics can outperform intuition and headlines.
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