Bitcoin’s story just got better.
A combination of seasonal activity, altcoin reallocation, institutional buy-ins, and easing geopolitical tension has set the stage for another rally, say analysts from Bitwise, FRNT, 10x Research, and CEX.IO.
“Bitcoin could be poised for another move higher, potentially reaching $116,000 in the coming weeks,” Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, wrote in a Tuesday report.
Bitwise analysts expect that the price could break even higher, saying the price could hit as high as $136,000 in July.
Traders pile in
They’re not alone in their optimism.
Traders on Deribit, a crypto derivatives trading platform, have poured into bullish bets that Bitcoin will rally, with 67% of calls only paying out if the price is above $112,000 on July 25, breaking its $111,814 record.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the cranked-up speculative fervour has even pushed the intensity of buying activity to a record high for 2025.
Similarly, chances of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high before August have surged to 78% on Polymarket.
Punters on the prediction market platform give the cryptocurrency a 90% chance of the price breaking another record before October.
No Summer lull
The bullishness runs counter to the common perception that Bitcoin snoozes during the mid-year period.
Thielen’s 10x Research challenged that perception in a report this week. It said that over the past decade, July has delivered an average monthly return of 10% in seven of the past 10 years.
If that pattern holds, Thielen predicted that Bitcoin will reach a new record before the beginning of August.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at UK bank Standard Chartered, said he expects the second half of the year to be “Bitcoin’s best ever in dollar terms.”
Kendrick identified increased institutional appetite for Bitcoin ETFs and the passage of the US stablecoin bill as factors that will drive the price in the latter half of the year.
Kendrick also predicted the market would price in more interest cuts amid speculation that US President Donald Trump might replace Jerome Powell before his term as Federal Reserve chair expires next year.
Altcoin allocation
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, a crypto exchange, predicts Bitcoin’s relative strength could be boosted by a massive reallocation of value from altcoins, with $64 billion in capital shifting from altcoins to Bitcoin in the third quarter.
As investors shift from altcoins to Bitcoin, the latter’s dominance, a shorthand for how much of the total cryptocurrency market Bitcoin controls, could spike.
To put that in perspective, a $64 billion reallocation is almost equivalent to the market value of Tron, Doge, and Staked Ether, the eighth, ninth, and 10th largest cryptocurrencies, combined.
Liquidity crunch
Bitcoin only delivered a 2% return in June as the price traded sideways for much of the latter half of the month.
But market watchers expect a much-improved growth figure this month.
David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mills reported that Bitcoin’s tepid performance in June was likely due to the quarter-end liquidity crunch caused by banks parking capital with the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility.
They said the crunch will ease in July, and the returning liquidity to the capital markets could help boost Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin tends to rally after geopolitical scares like the recent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, according to a Tuesday Bitwise report.
In the 50 days following 20 global pullbacks — from wars to macro panics — Bitcoin has rallied an average of 31%, the crypto asset manager said.
If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could soon have a price tag of about $136,000.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is up 2.2% in the last 24 hours to trade at $109,941
- Ethereum has gained 6.3% within the same period to trade at $2,603.
What we’re reading
- Why are Bitcoin ETF investors paying nine times what it costs for a normal ETF? ― DL News
- Exclusive | Ripple Seeks a U.S. Banking License, Adding to List of Crypto Companies — Wall Street Journal
- Pakistan pitches Nobel, crypto and rare earths to woo Donald Trump — Financial Times
- The 2025 Halftime Show — Milk Road
- Figma’s IPO Filing Unveils $70M Bitcoin ETF Stake ― Unchained
- Hungry investors plough more than $380m into quartet of these new DeFi protocols ― DL News
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? Please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.