Bitcoin goes through four-year cycles with regard to its halvings. These events can give investors a clue about when a significant increase in price is likely to take place. However, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, argues that this time may be different.
Hayes believes Bitcoin can break $200,000 without following the usual cycle.
Why Money Printing Matters
Hayes expects President Trump’s administration to push for lower interest rates, just like past presidents. Lower rates usually mean more money printing, and that weakens traditional currencies. When fiat money loses value, assets with a fixed supply, like Bitcoin, become more valuable. Hayes argues that the path to $200,000 doesn’t need to wait for the usual four-year cycle. The economic backdrop could speed things up.
Bitcoin to $200K? Arthur Hayes says forget the Fed—it’s the Treasury that may be driving this bull run.
My interview with @CryptoHayes, CIO of @MaelstromFund
View more on my YouTube channel: https://t.co/RfsB8oWQwn
Powered by @phoenixgroupuae pic.twitter.com/LvRklYfX10
— Henri Arslanian (@HenriArslanian) May 21, 2025
“Owning the Casino”
Hayes also explains the idea of “owning the casino”. In his view, the clever play is to invest in projects that thrive when markets boom with liquidity and speculation. Today, investors prefer crypto projects that give back through buybacks or staking rewards. He points to Athena, Etherfi, and Hyperliquid as examples that could shine.
2/➫ Arthur Hayes isn’t pulling $250K out of thin air
❍ He thinks the global financial system is heading into a $9T money-printing storm, where governments choose inflation over collapse
❍ In that world, Bitcoin’s scarcity makes it the last asset standing
❍ Let’s dive in👇 pic.twitter.com/EaUA4WiEAf
— 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗜𝗡 𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗗 ⛓🧠 (@0xChainMind) August 22, 2025
A significant part of Hayes’ outlook revolves around stablecoins. He believes trillions of dollars could flow into them as global investors look for security. Because U.S. deposits or Treasury bills back most stablecoins, they carry what he calls a “silent U.S. guarantee.”
This shift could help the United States Treasury issue debt more easily and keep the dollar strong, while making the Federal Reserve less central in setting rates. For crypto, more liquidity will move into DeFi, where users can lend, borrow, and trade faster than in banks.
Bitcoin vs. TradFi
Hayes observes that traditional finance and crypto rely on printing money by central banks. Bitcoin has, however, turned out to be the best hedge, with stocks, real estate, and even gold losing over time. It isn’t enjoyable when short-term volatilities happen, but long-term owners of Bitcoin are the winners.
The average lifespan of a fiat currency is 35 YEARS.
“Less foreign demand for dollars means more domestic money printing to compensate.”
The dollar’s reserve status becomes a liability, not an asset.
The reaper is knocking pic.twitter.com/4Y7nKoVNV6
— Simple Mining (@simpleminingio) August 21, 2025
Hayes predicts only a few winners will dominate Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and one or two others. Corporate treasuries, he adds, will keep adopting crypto, though some risky players may collapse like FTX or BlockFi. Still, he’s bullish. With governments worldwide printing money, Hayes believes Bitcoin can smash through $200,000 without waiting for the four-year cycle.
Arthur Hayes: Doesn’t Believe in Four-Year Cycle, BTC Will Break Through 200k
During an interview with Kyle Chasse, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, discussed the impact of macro liquidity on the cryptocurrency market. He pointed out that the market consensus is that the… pic.twitter.com/Ty84FBmp2B
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 15, 2025
The world is drowning in money printing, stablecoins are reshaping finance, and DeFi is attracting fresh liquidity. In the middle of it all, Bitcoin stands tall, and Hayes believes it could be on its way to $200,000 much sooner than many expect.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to accepted levels of risk tolerance of the writer/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may be different from yours.
We are not responsible for any losses that you may incur as a result of any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments, so please do your due diligence.
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